Discounted Cash Flow

UBS Group AG Foreign

UBS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $28.4b $82.0m $-18.2b 0.3% $0.86
2017 $29.2b (3.0%) $76.0m (-7.3%) $-52.5b (-187.9%) 0.3% (-10.0%) $0.28 (-67.4%)
2018 $30.3b (3.9%) $7.0m (-90.8%) $27.2b (151.9%) 0.0% (-91.1%) $1.21 (332.1%)
2019 $29.0b (-4.5%) $6.0m (-14.3%) $18.1b (-33.4%) 0.0% (-10.3%) $1.17 (-3.3%)
2020 $33.1b (14.2%) $15.0m (150.0%) $35.1b (93.7%) 0.0% (118.9%) $1.83 (56.4%)
2021 $35.4b (7.0%) $29.0m (93.3%) $29.6b (-15.7%) 0.1% (80.7%) $2.14 (16.9%)
2022 $34.6b (-2.3%) $32.0m (10.3%) $13.0b (-56.0%) 0.1% (13.0%) $2.34 (9.3%)
2023 $40.8b (18.1%) $16.0m (-50.0%) $84.4b (548.9%) 0.0% (-57.7%) $8.83 (277.4%)
2024 $48.6b (19.0%) $60.0m (275.0%) $1.3b (-98.5%) 0.1% (215.0%) $1.59 (-82.0%)
2025 $49.6b (2.0%) $30.0m (-50.0%) $19.5b (1432.2%) 0.1% (-51.0%) $2.46 (54.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model