Discounted Cash Flow

Ultrapar Holdings Inc. ADR

UGP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $77.4b $1.6b $2.0b 2.0% $2.88
2017 $80.0b (3.4%) $1.6b (0.8%) $1.7b (-12.6%) 2.0% (-2.5%) $2.91 (0.7%)
2018 $90.7b (13.4%) $1.2b (-26.9%) $2.9b (66.1%) 1.3% (-35.5%) $1.06 (-63.5%)
2019 $89.3b (-1.5%) $373.5m (-67.5%) $2.9b (1.2%) 0.4% (-67.0%) $0.34 (-67.6%)
2020 $81.2b (-9.0%) $893.4m (139.2%) $3.1b (7.3%) 1.1% (162.9%) $0.82 (139.0%)
2021 $109.7b (35.1%) $850.5m (-4.8%) $2.6b (-17.6%) 0.8% (-29.5%) $0.78 (-5.1%)
2022 $143.6b (30.9%) $1.8b (111.7%) $797.9m (-69.1%) 1.3% (61.8%) $1.65 (111.5%)
2023 $126.0b (-12.2%) $2.4b (35.5%) $2.6b (221.2%) 1.9% (54.4%) $2.23 (35.1%)
2024 $133.5b (5.9%) $2.4b (-3.2%) $1.9b (-24.0%) 1.8% (-8.6%) $2.14 (-3.7%)
2025 $0 (-100.0%) $2.7b (16.3%) $3.4b (76.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model