Discounted Cash Flow
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.9b | $320.0m | — | 8.2% | $5.00 |
| 2017 | $4.9b (23.7%) | $409.8m (28.0%) | $260.9m | 8.4% (3.5%) | $6.55 (31.0%) |
| 2018 | $5.9b (21.2%) | $555.2m (35.5%) | $338.7m (29.8%) | 9.4% (11.8%) | $9.02 (37.7%) |
| 2019 | $6.7b (14.1%) | $658.6m (18.6%) | $636.7m (88.0%) | 9.8% (3.9%) | $11.00 (22.0%) |
| 2020 | $7.4b (10.1%) | $705.9m (7.2%) | $802.8m (26.1%) | 9.5% (-2.7%) | $12.21 (11.0%) |
| 2021 | $6.2b (-16.8%) | $175.8m (-75.1%) | $658.5m (-18.0%) | 2.9% (-70.0%) | $3.12 (-74.4%) |
| 2022 | $8.6b (40.3%) | $985.8m (460.7%) | $887.1m (34.7%) | 11.4% (299.6%) | $18.09 (479.8%) |
| 2023 | $10.2b (18.3%) | $1.2b (26.0%) | $1.2b (31.9%) | 12.2% (6.5%) | $24.17 (33.6%) |
| 2024 | $11.2b (9.8%) | $1.3b (3.9%) | $1.0b (-11.0%) | 11.5% (-5.3%) | $26.18 (8.3%) |
| 2025 | $11.3b (0.8%) | $1.2b (-7.0%) | $964.1m (-7.4%) | 10.6% (-7.7%) | $25.44 (-2.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.