Discounted Cash Flow
UMB Financial Corp.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $523.0m | $158.8m | $245.6m | 30.4% | $3.25 |
| 2017 | $616.9m (17.9%) | $247.1m (55.6%) | $290.1m (18.1%) | 40.1% (31.9%) | $5.02 (54.5%) |
| 2018 | $732.0m (18.6%) | $195.5m (-20.9%) | $239.2m (-17.6%) | 26.7% (-33.3%) | $3.97 (-20.9%) |
| 2019 | $862.9m (17.9%) | $243.6m (24.6%) | $269.1m (12.5%) | 28.2% (5.7%) | $4.99 (25.7%) |
| 2020 | $808.5m (-6.3%) | $286.5m (17.6%) | $313.4m (16.5%) | 35.4% (25.5%) | $5.95 (19.2%) |
| 2021 | $861.5m (6.6%) | $353.0m (23.2%) | $500.4m (59.7%) | 41.0% (15.6%) | $7.31 (22.9%) |
| 2022 | $1.1b (32.0%) | $431.7m (22.3%) | $717.8m (43.5%) | 37.9% (-7.4%) | $8.93 (22.2%) |
| 2023 | $1.8b (61.6%) | $350.0m (-18.9%) | $445.7m (-37.9%) | 19.0% (-49.8%) | $7.22 (-19.1%) |
| 2024 | $2.2b (18.1%) | $441.2m (26.1%) | $201.1m (-54.9%) | 20.3% (6.8%) | $9.05 (25.3%) |
| 2025 | $3.4b (54.5%) | $702.4m (59.2%) | $978.1m (386.4%) | 20.9% (3.0%) | $9.35 (3.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.