Discounted Cash Flow

Unitedhealth Group Inc.

UNH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $184.8b $7.0b $-7.8b 3.8% $7.37
2017 $201.2b (8.8%) $10.6b (50.5%) $-992.0m (87.2%) 5.2% (38.3%) $10.95 (48.6%)
2018 $226.2b (12.5%) $12.0b (13.5%) $1.7b (271.7%) 5.3% (0.9%) $12.45 (13.7%)
2019 $242.2b (7.0%) $13.8b (15.5%) $332.0m (-80.5%) 5.7% (7.9%) $14.55 (16.9%)
2020 $257.1b (6.2%) $15.4b (11.3%) $5.6b (1585.8%) 6.0% (4.8%) $16.23 (11.5%)
2021 $287.6b (11.8%) $17.3b (12.2%) $5.2b (-7.0%) 6.0% (0.3%) $18.33 (12.9%)
2022 $324.2b (12.7%) $20.1b (16.4%) $7.4b (41.8%) 6.2% (3.3%) $21.47 (17.1%)
2023 $371.6b (14.6%) $22.4b (11.2%) $10.8b (45.7%) 6.0% (-3.0%) $24.12 (12.3%)
2024 $400.3b (7.7%) $14.4b (-35.6%) $-3.1b (-128.9%) 3.6% (-40.2%) $15.64 (-35.2%)
2025 $447.6b (11.8%) $12.1b (-16.3%) $2.3b (174.9%) 2.7% (-25.1%) $13.28 (-15.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model