Discounted Cash Flow

Union Pacific Corp.

UNP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $19.9b $4.2b $4.0b 21.2% $5.09
2017 $21.2b (6.5%) $10.7b (153.1%) $4.0b (-0.7%) 50.4% (137.6%) $13.42 (163.7%)
2018 $22.8b (7.5%) $6.0b (-44.3%) $5.2b (31.5%) 26.1% (-48.2%) $7.95 (-40.8%)
2019 $21.7b (-4.9%) $5.9b (-0.8%) $5.2b (-1.8%) 27.3% (4.3%) $8.41 (5.8%)
2020 $19.5b (-10.0%) $5.3b (-9.6%) $5.6b (8.9%) 27.4% (0.4%) $7.90 (-6.1%)
2021 $21.8b (11.6%) $6.5b (21.9%) $6.1b (8.6%) 29.9% (9.2%) $9.98 (26.3%)
2022 $24.9b (14.1%) $7.0b (7.3%) $5.7b (-5.8%) 28.1% (-6.0%) $11.24 (12.6%)
2023 $24.1b (-3.0%) $6.4b (-8.8%) $4.8b (-16.9%) 26.4% (-6.0%) $10.47 (-6.9%)
2024 $24.2b (0.5%) $6.7b (5.8%) $5.9b (23.5%) 27.8% (5.2%) $11.10 (6.0%)
2025 $24.5b (1.1%) $7.1b (5.8%) $5.5b (-6.7%) 29.1% (4.7%) $12.00 (8.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model