Discounted Cash Flow
Union Pacific Corp.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $19.9b | $4.2b | $4.0b | 21.2% | $5.09 |
| 2017 | $21.2b (6.5%) | $10.7b (153.1%) | $4.0b (-0.7%) | 50.4% (137.6%) | $13.42 (163.7%) |
| 2018 | $22.8b (7.5%) | $6.0b (-44.3%) | $5.2b (31.5%) | 26.1% (-48.2%) | $7.95 (-40.8%) |
| 2019 | $21.7b (-4.9%) | $5.9b (-0.8%) | $5.2b (-1.8%) | 27.3% (4.3%) | $8.41 (5.8%) |
| 2020 | $19.5b (-10.0%) | $5.3b (-9.6%) | $5.6b (8.9%) | 27.4% (0.4%) | $7.90 (-6.1%) |
| 2021 | $21.8b (11.6%) | $6.5b (21.9%) | $6.1b (8.6%) | 29.9% (9.2%) | $9.98 (26.3%) |
| 2022 | $24.9b (14.1%) | $7.0b (7.3%) | $5.7b (-5.8%) | 28.1% (-6.0%) | $11.24 (12.6%) |
| 2023 | $24.1b (-3.0%) | $6.4b (-8.8%) | $4.8b (-16.9%) | 26.4% (-6.0%) | $10.47 (-6.9%) |
| 2024 | $24.2b (0.5%) | $6.7b (5.8%) | $5.9b (23.5%) | 27.8% (5.2%) | $11.10 (6.0%) |
| 2025 | $24.5b (1.1%) | $7.1b (5.8%) | $5.5b (-6.7%) | 29.1% (4.7%) | $12.00 (8.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.