Discounted Cash Flow
United Parcel Service Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $60.9b | $3.4b | $1.7b | 5.6% | $3.89 |
| 2017 | $65.9b (8.2%) | $4.9b (43.1%) | $-155.0m (-109.4%) | 7.5% (32.3%) | $5.64 (45.0%) |
| 2018 | $71.9b (9.1%) | $4.8b (-2.4%) | $11.7b (7672.9%) | 6.7% (-10.6%) | $5.53 (-2.0%) |
| 2019 | $74.1b (3.1%) | $4.4b (-7.3%) | $8.1b (-31.2%) | 6.0% (-10.1%) | $5.14 (-7.1%) |
| 2020 | $84.6b (14.2%) | $1.3b (-69.8%) | $10.2b (26.3%) | 1.6% (-73.5%) | $1.55 (-69.8%) |
| 2021 | $97.3b (15.0%) | $12.9b (859.8%) | $14.7b (44.0%) | 13.2% (734.9%) | $14.75 (851.6%) |
| 2022 | $100.3b (3.1%) | $11.5b (-10.4%) | $12.2b (-17.0%) | 11.5% (-13.1%) | $13.26 (-10.1%) |
| 2023 | $91.0b (-9.3%) | $6.7b (-41.9%) | $6.7b (-44.9%) | 7.4% (-35.9%) | $7.81 (-41.1%) |
| 2024 | $91.1b (0.1%) | $5.8b (-13.8%) | $10.0b (49.6%) | 6.3% (-13.9%) | $6.76 (-13.4%) |
| 2025 | $88.7b (-2.6%) | $5.6b (-3.6%) | $8.4b (-16.8%) | 6.3% (-1.0%) | $6.56 (-3.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.