Discounted Cash Flow

Urban Outfitters Inc.

URBN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $3.5b $218.1m $271.2m 6.2% $1.87
2018 $3.6b (2.0%) $108.3m (-50.4%) $219.2m (-19.2%) 3.0% (-51.3%) $0.97 (-48.1%)
2019 $4.0b (9.3%) $298.0m (175.3%) $331.7m (51.3%) 7.5% (151.9%) $2.75 (183.5%)
2020 $4.0b (0.8%) $168.1m (-43.6%) $56.5m (-83.0%) 4.2% (-44.1%) $1.68 (-38.9%)
2021 $3.4b (-13.4%) $1.2m (-99.3%) $126.6m (124.2%) 0.0% (-99.2%) $0.01 (-99.4%)
2022 $4.5b (31.9%) $310.6m (25030.7%) $96.9m (-23.5%) 6.8% (18959.0%) $3.17 (31600.0%)
2023 $4.8b (5.4%) $159.7m (-48.6%) $-56.8m (-158.6%) 3.3% (-51.2%) $1.71 (-46.1%)
2024 $5.2b (7.5%) $287.7m (80.1%) $309.8m (645.6%) 5.6% (67.6%) $3.10 (81.3%)
2025 $5.6b (7.7%) $402.5m (39.9%) $320.3m (3.4%) 7.3% (29.9%) $4.34 (40.0%)
2026 $6.2b (11.1%) $464.9m (15.5%) $315.0m (-1.6%) 7.5% (4.0%) $5.15 (18.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model