Discounted Cash Flow

US Bancorp \de\

USB · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $21.3b $5.9b $5.3b 27.6% $3.25
2017 $22.1b (3.5%) $6.2b (5.6%) $6.5b (21.3%) 28.2% (2.0%) $3.53 (8.6%)
2018 $22.6b (2.6%) $7.1b (14.1%) $10.6b (63.2%) 31.3% (11.2%) $4.15 (17.6%)
2019 $1.7b (-92.6%) $6.9b (-2.6%) $4.9b (-53.7%) 413.3% (1218.4%) $4.16 (0.2%)
2020 $1.7b (3.8%) $5.0b (-28.3%) $3.7b (-24.0%) 285.7% (-30.9%) $3.06 (-26.4%)
2021 $1.8b (5.5%) $8.0b (60.6%) $9.9b (165.6%) 434.7% (52.2%) $5.11 (67.0%)
2022 $2.2b (20.6%) $5.8b (-26.8%) $21.1b (114.0%) 263.7% (-39.3%) $3.69 (-27.8%)
2023 $28.1b (1174.1%) $5.4b (-6.8%) $8.4b (-60.3%) 19.3% (-92.7%) $3.27 (-11.4%)
2024 $27.5b (-2.4%) $6.3b (16.0%) $11.3b (35.2%) 22.9% (18.9%) $3.79 (15.9%)
2025 $28.7b (4.4%) $7.6b (20.2%) $8.0b (-29.8%) 26.4% (15.1%) $4.62 (21.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model