Discounted Cash Flow

Vale S.A. ADR

VALE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $27.5b $4.0b 14.5%
2017 $34.0b (23.6%) $5.5b (38.3%) 16.2% (11.9%)
2018 $36.6b (7.7%) $6.9b (24.6%) $11.9b 18.8% (15.7%)
2019 $37.6b (2.7%) $-1.7b (-124.5%) -4.5% (-123.9%)
2020 $40.0b (6.5%) $4.9b (390.0%) 12.2% (372.3%)
2021 $54.5b (36.2%) $22.4b (359.8%) $20.1b 41.2% (237.6%)
2022 $43.8b (-19.6%) $18.8b (-16.3%) $5.4b (-73.1%) 42.9% (4.1%)
2023 $41.8b (-4.7%) $8.0b (-57.5%) $10.5b (93.3%) 19.1% (-55.4%)
2024 $38.1b (-8.9%) $6.2b (-22.8%) $9.0b (-14.3%) 16.2% (-15.2%)
2025 $38.4b (0.9%) $2.4b (-61.9%) $2.8b (-68.8%) 6.1% (-62.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model