Discounted Cash Flow

Velocity Financial, Inc.

VEL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2018 $62.1m $7.6m $-73.8m 12.3%
2019 $73.6m (18.5%) $17.3m (126.6%) $-106.2m (-44.0%) 23.5% (91.2%)
2020 $79.5m (8.0%) $17.8m (2.8%) $54.2m (151.0%) 22.4% (-4.8%)
2021 $96.6m (21.5%) $29.2m (64.4%) $57.5m (6.1%) 30.3% (35.3%)
2022 $112.6m (16.6%) $32.2m (10.2%) $48.3m (-15.9%) 28.6% (-5.5%)
2023 $124.3m (10.4%) $52.3m (62.3%) $48.7m (0.6%) 42.1% (47.0%)
2024 $159.6m (28.4%) $68.4m (30.9%) $37.5m (-23.0%) 42.9% (1.9%)
2025 $210.4m (31.8%) $105.1m (53.5%) $17.9m (-52.3%) 49.9% (16.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model