Discounted Cash Flow
Vipshop Holdings Ltd. ADR
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $8.2b | $301.4m | $18.4m | 3.7% | $2.53 |
| 2017 | $11.2b (37.5%) | $288.5m (-4.3%) | $-27.7m (-250.3%) | 2.6% (-30.4%) | $2.55 (0.8%) |
| 2018 | $12.3b (9.7%) | $315.1m (9.2%) | $69.4m (350.9%) | 2.6% (-0.5%) | $2.34 (-8.2%) |
| 2019 | $13.4b (8.7%) | $594.5m (88.7%) | $191.1m (175.1%) | 4.5% (73.7%) | $4.32 (84.6%) |
| 2020 | $15.6b (16.9%) | $874.2m (47.1%) | $217.4m (13.8%) | 5.6% (25.8%) | $6.70 (55.1%) |
| 2021 | $18.4b (17.7%) | $692.8m (-20.8%) | $93.2m (-57.1%) | 3.8% (-32.7%) | $5.39 (-19.6%) |
| 2022 | $15.0b (-18.6%) | $932.2m (34.6%) | $1.5b (1514.9%) | 6.2% (65.3%) | $7.18 (33.2%) |
| 2023 | $15.9b (6.3%) | $1.2b (28.9%) | $2.1b (38.8%) | 7.6% (21.2%) | $10.33 (43.9%) |
| 2024 | $14.9b (-6.6%) | $1.1b (-4.6%) | $1.3b (-37.9%) | 7.7% (2.0%) | $10.00 (-3.2%) |
| 2025 | $15.1b (2.0%) | $153.3m (-86.6%) | $1.1b (-18.1%) | 1.0% (-86.9%) | $10.35 (3.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.