Discounted Cash Flow

Vital Farms, Inc.

VITL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2018 $106.7m $6.4m $9.5m 6.0%
2019 $140.7m (31.9%) $4.4m (-30.4%) $-10.2m (-207.0%) 3.1% (-47.3%)
2020 $214.3m (52.3%) $11.7m (163.8%) $1.4m (113.8%) 5.4% (73.2%)
2021 $260.9m (21.8%) $354.0k (-97.0%) $-386.0k (-127.5%) 0.1% (-97.5%)
2022 $362.1m (38.8%) $2.8m (699.7%) $-18.6m (-4709.8%) 0.8% (476.3%)
2023 $471.9m (30.3%) $32.2m (1037.4%) $39.4m (312.0%) 6.8% (772.7%)
2024 $606.3m (28.5%) $67.5m (109.7%) $36.2m (-8.1%) 11.1% (63.2%)
2025 $759.4m (25.3%) $91.3m (35.1%) $-48.2m (-233.3%) 12.0% (7.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model