Discounted Cash Flow

VSE Corp.

VSEC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $691.8m $26.8m $40.6m 3.9% $2.48
2017 $760.1m (9.9%) $39.1m (45.9%) $46.7m (14.8%) 5.1% (32.8%) $3.61 (45.6%)
2018 $697.2m (-8.3%) $35.1m (-10.3%) $15.7m (-66.3%) 5.0% (-2.2%) $3.23 (-10.5%)
2019 $752.6m (7.9%) $37.0m (5.5%) $8.4m (-46.9%) 4.9% (-2.2%) $3.38 (4.6%)
2020 $661.7m (-12.1%) $-5.2m (-114.0%) $31.3m (274.6%) -0.8% (-115.9%) $-0.47 (-113.9%)
2021 $750.9m (13.5%) $8.0m (254.1%) $-28.1m (-189.7%) 1.1% (235.8%) $0.63 (234.0%)
2022 $949.8m (26.5%) $28.1m (252.2%) $-3.2m (88.8%) 3.0% (178.5%) $2.20 (249.2%)
2023 $860.5m (-9.4%) $39.1m (39.5%) $-40.5m (-1181.1%) 4.5% (53.9%) $2.77 (25.9%)
2024 $1.1b (25.5%) $15.3m (-60.8%) $-51.7m (-27.8%) 1.4% (-68.8%) $0.86 (-69.0%)
2025 $1.1b (3.0%) $11.7m (-23.6%) $5.7m (111.0%) 1.1% (-25.8%) $0.55 (-36.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model