Discounted Cash Flow

Valvoline Inc.

VVV · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.9b $273.0m $245.0m 14.2% $0.00
2017 $2.1b (8.7%) $304.0m (11.4%) $-198.0m (-180.8%) 14.5% (2.4%) $1.49
2018 $2.3b (9.0%) $166.0m (-45.4%) $227.0m (214.6%) 7.3% (-49.9%) $0.84 (-43.6%)
2019 $2.4b (4.6%) $208.0m (25.3%) $217.0m (-4.4%) 8.7% (19.8%) $1.10 (31.0%)
2020 $2.4b (-1.5%) $317.0m (52.4%) $221.0m (1.8%) 13.5% (54.8%) $1.70 (54.5%)
2021 $3.0b (26.7%) $420.0m (32.5%) $260.0m (17.6%) 14.1% (4.6%) $2.30 (35.3%)
2022 $1.2b (-58.5%) $424.3m (1.0%) $152.2m (-41.5%) 34.3% (143.6%) $2.37 (3.0%)
2023 $1.4b (16.8%) $1.4b (234.6%) $-221.3m (-245.4%) 98.4% (186.5%) $8.79 (270.9%)
2024 $1.6b (12.2%) $211.5m (-85.1%) $40.7m (118.4%) 13.1% (-86.7%) $1.63 (-81.5%)
2025 $1.7b (5.6%) $210.7m (-0.4%) $38.0m (-6.6%) 12.3% (-5.7%) $1.65 (1.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model