Discounted Cash Flow

Waste Connections, Inc.

WCN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.4b $246.5m $450.6m 7.3% $1.61
2017 $4.6b (37.2%) $576.8m (134.0%) $708.0m (57.1%) 12.5% (70.6%) $2.19 (36.0%)
2018 $4.9b (6.3%) $546.9m (-5.2%) $865.1m (22.2%) 11.1% (-10.8%) $2.07 (-5.5%)
2019 $5.4b (9.5%) $566.8m (3.7%) $906.1m (4.7%) 10.5% (-5.3%) $2.15 (3.9%)
2020 $5.4b (1.1%) $204.7m (-63.9%) $811.5m (-10.4%) 3.8% (-64.3%) $0.78 (-63.7%)
2021 $6.2b (13.0%) $618.0m (202.0%) $953.9m (17.6%) 10.0% (167.3%) $2.37 (203.8%)
2022 $7.2b (17.2%) $835.7m (35.2%) $1.1b (16.3%) 11.6% (15.3%) $3.25 (37.1%)
2023 $8.0b (11.2%) $762.8m (-8.7%) $1.2b (7.5%) 9.5% (-17.9%) $2.96 (-8.9%)
2024 $8.9b (11.2%) $617.6m (-19.0%) $1.2b (-1.7%) 6.9% (-27.2%) $2.39 (-19.3%)
2025 $9.5b (6.1%) $1.1b (74.3%) $1.2b (5.3%) 11.4% (64.2%) $4.18 (74.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model