Discounted Cash Flow

Welltower Inc. REIT

WELL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $4.3b $1.0b $1.6b 23.6% $2.83
2017 $4.3b (0.8%) $463.6m (-54.2%) $1.4b (-11.9%) 10.7% (-54.6%) $1.26 (-55.5%)
2018 $4.7b (8.9%) $758.2m (63.6%) $1.6b (10.4%) 16.1% (50.2%) $2.03 (61.1%)
2019 $5.1b (9.0%) $1.2b (62.5%) $1.5b (-3.0%) 24.1% (49.2%) $3.07 (51.2%)
2020 $4.6b (-10.1%) $978.8m (-20.6%) $1.4b (-11.1%) 21.3% (-11.7%) $2.36 (-23.1%)
2021 $4.7b (3.0%) $336.1m (-65.7%) $1.3b (-6.6%) 7.1% (-66.6%) $0.79 (-66.5%)
2022 $5.9b (23.6%) $141.2m (-58.0%) $1.3b (1.8%) 2.4% (-66.0%) $0.31 (-60.8%)
2023 $4.8b (-18.9%) $340.1m (140.8%) $1.6b (19.5%) 7.2% (196.9%) $0.66 (112.9%)
2024 $6.0b (26.8%) $951.7m (179.8%) $2.2b (41.7%) 15.8% (120.7%) $1.58 (139.4%)
2025 $8.5b (40.2%) $936.8m (-1.6%) $2.8b (29.5%) 11.1% (-29.8%) $1.41 (-10.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model