Discounted Cash Flow

Wingstop Inc.

WING · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $91.4m $15.4m $20.1m 16.9% $0.54
2017 $105.6m (15.5%) $27.3m (76.9%) $24.5m (21.9%) 25.9% (53.1%) $0.94 (74.1%)
2018 $153.2m (45.1%) $21.7m (-20.5%) $34.8m (41.9%) 14.2% (-45.2%) $0.74 (-21.3%)
2019 $199.7m (30.4%) $20.5m (-5.7%) $16.1m (-53.7%) 10.3% (-27.7%) $0.70 (-5.4%)
2020 $248.8m (24.6%) $23.3m (13.8%) $59.5m (269.5%) 9.4% (-8.7%) $0.79 (12.9%)
2021 $282.5m (13.5%) $42.7m (83.0%) $20.9m (-64.9%) 15.1% (61.2%) $1.43 (81.0%)
2022 $357.5m (26.6%) $52.9m (24.1%) $52.3m (150.7%) 14.8% (-1.9%) $1.77 (23.8%)
2023 $460.1m (28.7%) $70.2m (32.5%) $80.8m (54.4%) 15.3% (3.0%) $2.36 (33.3%)
2024 $625.8m (36.0%) $108.7m (54.9%) $105.7m (30.8%) 17.4% (13.9%) $3.72 (57.6%)
2025 $696.9m (11.4%) $174.3m (60.3%) $105.6m (-0.1%) 25.0% (44.0%) $6.23 (67.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model