Discounted Cash Flow

Waste Management Inc.

WM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $13.6b $1.2b $1.6b 8.7% $2.66
2017 $14.5b (6.4%) $1.9b (64.9%) $1.6b (-0.1%) 13.5% (54.9%) $4.44 (66.9%)
2018 $14.9b (3.0%) $1.9b (-1.2%) $1.9b (17.8%) 12.9% (-4.1%) $4.49 (1.1%)
2019 $15.5b (3.6%) $1.7b (-13.2%) $2.1b (8.4%) 10.8% (-16.3%) $3.93 (-12.5%)
2020 $15.2b (-1.5%) $1.5b (-10.4%) $1.8b (-11.7%) 9.8% (-9.0%) $3.54 (-9.9%)
2021 $17.9b (17.8%) $1.8b (21.4%) $2.3b (26.5%) 10.1% (3.0%) $4.32 (22.0%)
2022 $19.7b (9.9%) $2.2b (23.2%) $1.7b (-24.9%) 11.4% (12.2%) $5.42 (25.5%)
2023 $20.4b (3.7%) $2.3b (2.9%) $1.8b (5.6%) 11.3% (-0.7%) $5.69 (5.0%)
2024 $22.1b (8.0%) $2.7b (19.2%) $2.2b (18.4%) 12.4% (10.3%) $6.84 (20.2%)
2025 $25.2b (14.2%) $2.7b (-1.4%) $2.8b (30.4%) 10.7% (-13.7%) $6.72 (-1.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model