Discounted Cash Flow
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.3b | $33.0m | $57.6m | 2.6% | $0.51 |
| 2018 | $1.3b (5.8%) | $62.0m (88.2%) | $95.4m (65.8%) | 4.7% (77.8%) | $1.00 (96.1%) |
| 2019 | $1.4b (4.1%) | $77.8m (25.4%) | $108.3m (13.5%) | 5.6% (20.5%) | $1.23 (23.0%) |
| 2020 | $1.7b (20.9%) | $-193.2m (-348.4%) | $238.5m (120.3%) | -11.5% (-305.5%) | $-3.21 (-361.0%) |
| 2021 | $2.0b (18.5%) | $224.2m (216.1%) | $373.5m (56.6%) | 11.3% (198.0%) | $2.64 (182.2%) |
| 2022 | $2.8b (39.7%) | $271.3m (21.0%) | $125.8m (-66.3%) | 9.8% (-13.4%) | $3.22 (22.0%) |
| 2023 | $3.1b (10.9%) | $507.1m (86.9%) | $540.9m (329.9%) | 16.5% (68.5%) | $6.16 (91.3%) |
| 2024 | $2.9b (-6.4%) | $509.9m (0.6%) | $534.1m (-1.3%) | 17.7% (7.4%) | $6.52 (5.8%) |
| 2025 | $2.9b (1.0%) | $450.2m (-11.7%) | $368.5m (-31.0%) | 15.5% (-12.6%) | $5.81 (-10.9%) |
| 2026 | $3.1b (5.0%) | $426.5m (-5.3%) | $569.3m (54.5%) | 14.0% (-9.8%) | $5.48 (-5.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.