Discounted Cash Flow

Watsco Inc.

WSO.B · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $4.2b $182.8m $234.2m 4.3% $5.16
2017 $4.3b (2.9%) $208.2m (13.9%) $288.6m (23.3%) 4.8% (10.7%) $5.81 (12.6%)
2018 $4.5b (4.7%) $242.9m (16.7%) $153.4m (-46.9%) 5.3% (11.4%) $6.50 (11.9%)
2019 $4.8b (4.9%) $245.9m (1.2%) $318.0m (107.3%) 5.2% (-3.5%) $6.51 (0.2%)
2020 $5.1b (6.0%) $269.6m (9.6%) $517.9m (62.9%) 5.3% (3.4%) $7.03 (8.0%)
2021 $6.3b (24.2%) $418.9m (55.4%) $324.1m (-37.4%) 6.7% (25.1%) $10.83 (54.1%)
2022 $7.3b (15.8%) $601.2m (43.5%) $536.3m (65.5%) 8.3% (23.9%) $15.46 (42.8%)
2023 $7.3b (0.1%) $536.3m (-10.8%) $526.5m (-1.8%) 7.4% (-10.9%) $13.72 (-11.3%)
2024 $7.6b (4.6%) $536.3m (-0.0%) $743.0m (41.1%) 7.0% (-4.4%) $13.34 (-2.8%)
2025 $7.2b (-5.0%) $497.0m (-7.3%) $535.1m (-28.0%) 6.9% (-2.5%) $12.27 (-8.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model