Discounted Cash Flow

Xcel Energy Inc.

XEL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $11.1b $1.1b $2.5b 10.1%
2017 $11.4b (2.7%) $1.1b (2.2%) $1.4b (-43.0%) 10.1% (-0.5%)
2018 $11.5b (1.2%) $1.3b (9.8%) $2.3b (58.8%) 10.9% (8.6%)
2019 $11.5b (-0.1%) $1.4b (8.8%) $2.3b (-0.0%) 11.9% (8.9%)
2020 $11.5b (-0.0%) $1.5b (7.4%) $1.4b (-36.1%) 12.8% (7.4%)
2021 $13.4b (16.5%) $1.6b (8.4%) $1.4b (-1.2%) 11.9% (-7.0%)
2022 $15.3b (14.0%) $1.7b (8.7%) $2.6b (81.6%) 11.3% (-4.6%)
2023 $14.2b (-7.2%) $1.8b (2.0%) $4.3b (66.7%) 12.5% (9.9%)
2024 $13.4b (-5.4%) $1.9b (9.3%) $3.6b (-15.9%) 14.4% (15.5%)
2025 $14.7b (9.1%) $2.0b (4.2%) $2.9b (-20.9%) 13.8% (-4.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model