Discounted Cash Flow

Exxon Mobil Corp.

XOM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $218.6b $7.8b $5.9b 3.6% $1.88
2017 $237.2b (8.5%) $19.7b (151.4%) $14.7b (147.7%) 8.3% (131.7%) $4.63 (146.3%)
2018 $279.3b (17.8%) $20.8b (5.7%) $16.4b (12.1%) 7.5% (-10.2%) $4.88 (5.4%)
2019 $255.6b (-8.5%) $14.3b (-31.2%) $5.4b (-67.4%) 5.6% (-24.8%) $3.36 (-31.1%)
2020 $178.6b (-30.1%) $-22.4b (-256.5%) $-2.6b (-148.8%) -12.6% (-324.0%) $-5.25 (-256.2%)
2021 $276.7b (54.9%) $23.0b (202.7%) $36.1b (1479.2%) 8.3% (166.3%) $5.39 (202.7%)
2022 $413.7b (49.5%) $55.7b (141.9%) $58.4b (62.0%) 13.5% (61.8%) $13.26 (146.0%)
2023 $344.6b (-16.7%) $36.0b (-35.4%) $33.5b (-42.7%) 10.5% (-22.4%) $8.89 (-33.0%)
2024 $349.6b (1.5%) $33.7b (-6.5%) $30.7b (-8.2%) 9.6% (-7.8%) $7.84 (-11.8%)
2025 $332.2b (-5.0%) $28.8b (-14.4%) $23.6b (-23.1%) 8.7% (-9.9%) $6.70 (-14.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model