Discounted Cash Flow

X Financial ADR

XYF · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $0 $-17.8m $12.0m $-0.50
2017 $1.8b $50.5m (384.6%) $-94.4m (-886.0%) 2.8% $1.30 (360.0%)
2018 $515.0m (-71.2%) $19.1m (-62.3%) $-39.3k (100.0%) 3.7% (31.0%) $0.45 (-65.4%)
2019 $443.6m (-13.9%) $16.5m (-13.4%) $88.8m (225925.2%) 3.7% (0.5%) $0.35 (-22.2%)
2020 $336.1m (-24.2%) $-29.8m (-280.3%) $-101.0m (-213.6%) -8.9% (-338.0%) $-0.62 (-277.1%)
2021 $569.1m (69.3%) $19.2m (164.6%) $66.6m (166.0%) 3.4% (138.1%) $0.39 (162.9%)
2022 $516.6m (-9.2%) $17.5m (-9.1%) $47.8m (-28.3%) 3.4% (0.1%) $0.37 (-5.1%)
2023 $4.8b (832.1%) $24.8m (42.0%) $120.7m (152.6%) 0.5% (-84.8%) $0.58 (56.8%)
2024 $5.9b (22.0%) $31.3m (26.2%) $225.9m (87.2%) 0.5% (3.5%) $0.73 (25.9%)
2025 $7.6b (30.1%) $31.1m (-0.7%) $217.4m (-3.7%) 0.4% (-23.7%) $0.86 (17.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model