Discounted Cash Flow

Yum China Holdings, Inc.

YUMC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $6.8b $502.0m $428.0m 7.4% $1.36
2017 $7.1b (5.8%) $403.0m (-19.7%) $469.0m (9.6%) 5.6% (-24.1%) $1.04 (-23.5%)
2018 $8.4b (17.8%) $708.0m (75.7%) $863.0m (84.0%) 8.4% (49.1%) $1.84 (76.9%)
2019 $8.8b (4.3%) $713.0m (0.7%) $750.0m (-13.1%) 8.1% (-3.4%) $1.89 (2.7%)
2020 $8.3b (-5.8%) $784.0m (10.0%) $695.0m (-7.3%) 9.5% (16.8%) $2.01 (6.3%)
2021 $9.9b (19.2%) $990.0m (26.3%) $442.0m (-36.4%) 10.0% (5.9%) $2.34 (16.4%)
2022 $9.6b (-2.9%) $442.0m (-55.4%) $734.0m (66.1%) 4.6% (-54.0%) $1.05 (-55.1%)
2023 $11.0b (14.7%) $827.0m (87.1%) $763.0m (4.0%) 7.5% (63.1%) $1.99 (89.5%)
2024 $11.3b (3.0%) $911.0m (10.2%) $714.0m (-6.4%) 8.1% (7.0%) $2.34 (17.6%)
2025 $11.8b (4.4%) $929.0m (2.0%) $840.0m (17.6%) 7.9% (-2.3%) $2.52 (7.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model