Discounted Cash Flow
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ADR
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.4b | $43.8m | $11.7m | 3.1% | $0.42 |
| 2017 | $2.0b (42.4%) | $71.9m (64.2%) | $24.1m (105.2%) | 3.6% (15.3%) | $0.68 (61.9%) |
| 2018 | $2.6b (27.6%) | $94.3m (31.3%) | $23.3m (-3.4%) | 3.7% (2.9%) | $0.85 (25.0%) |
| 2019 | $3.2b (24.0%) | $120.6m (27.9%) | $35.5m (52.5%) | 3.8% (3.1%) | $1.04 (22.4%) |
| 2020 | $3.9b (21.7%) | $97.8m (-18.9%) | $-51.9m (-246.2%) | 2.5% (-33.4%) | $0.83 (-20.2%) |
| 2021 | $4.8b (23.5%) | $110.4m (12.9%) | $-26.5m (48.9%) | 2.3% (-8.6%) | $0.91 (9.6%) |
| 2022 | $5.1b (7.5%) | $146.1m (32.3%) | $146.1m (651.7%) | 2.8% (23.1%) | $1.22 (34.1%) |
| 2023 | $5.4b (5.5%) | $182.4m (24.8%) | $182.4m (24.8%) | 3.4% (18.3%) | $1.53 (25.4%) |
| 2024 | $6.1b (12.1%) | $178.8m (-2.0%) | $1.6b (769.6%) | 2.9% (-12.6%) | $1.50 (-2.0%) |
| 2025 | $7.0b (15.7%) | $192.2m (7.5%) | $1.7b (4.7%) | 2.7% (-7.1%) | $1.63 (8.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.